Card Index Soccer Betting

  
With more and more bettors turning to the bookings markets in order to increase their winnings, we asked our soccer expert, Mark Taylor to looks at the frequency of bookings in the major European Leagues. Who gets more cards? Defenders or attackers? The underdog or the favourite? In which month do we see more bookings? Read on to find out.

How sports betting will work. The sports betting industry will work a lot like casinos today. There are the companies that take the bets (casinos) and are the front-facing view consumers get. Each bet is a separate one but we must always have more wins than defeats per month in order to increase our working capital and make profits steadily each month. Keep your record and statistics in excel. Last of our 10 tips to win in soccer betting is tracking your records. You can keep match results in Excel. I use a free spreadsheet for this. Sporting Index Ltd, Gateway House, Milverton Street, London, SE11 4AP.Sporting Index make every effort to ensure that Bet In Play information displayed is correct. This information is intended as a guide only. Sporting Index accept no liability for any statistical information being out of date or incorrect.

Read our cards betting in soccer article to learn the basics of how to bet on cards.
Betting on association football matches has greatly evolved since the days when markets were based solely around the match result and one of the more popular derivatives involves the issuing of red and yellow cards.

Law 12, Fouls and Misconduct deal with the sanctions available to a referee to use against a transgressing player.

While cautionable offences range from delaying the restart of play to re-entering the field of play without permission, it is fouls through persistent infringing of the Laws of the Game that generate the vast majority of cautions.

Although not specifically referred to in the Laws, defenders, who make the majority of their challenges in their own half and therefore commit the majority of their fouls in the same area, tend to be most a risk of collecting a card through persistent infringement.

Defenders are more often penalised

Using data from a recent Premier League season, defenders were twice as likely to receive a card compared to attackers who committed the same number of fouls.

In the Premier League season 2015/16, defenders were twice as likely to receive a card compared to attackers who committed the same number of fouls.

In this dataset, a defender who committed four fouls in the game had a nearly 60% likelihood of finishing his match with at least a yellow card. Whereas a similarly reckless attacker ended the game with just a 30% chance of having received a card.

A defender who was penalised seven or more times was virtually certain to be carded, compared to the misbehaving attacking player who merely becomes slightly more likely than not to go into the referee’s notebook when infringing this often.

Therefore, a good starting point when attempting to form an opinion on cards is how much defending each team will be required to do in the game.

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Although, as Leicester proved last season with their low possession, counter attacking style, a superior team does not need to dominate possession in the attacking half of the field, there is a general trend towards the favoured side to have the ball more often, both overall and in the attacking half.

Underdogs get more cards

The tendency for weaker teams in a game to be legitimately punished more by the referee, not through bias, but because they are required to make more challenges and potentially commit more fouls in areas where cards tend to be issued, can be illustrated in the data.

Over the previous three Premier League seasons, teams that were odds on to win the game received, on average only 40% of the cards shown in the game.

Their opponents were shown more cards in 51% of the games, both teams were shown the same number in 26% of games and the strong, pre-game favourites were carded most in just 23% of the matches.

However, there were other in game dynamics also at play.

For example, strongly fancied pre game favourites who failed to win as expected also tended to be more badly behaved compared to those fancied sides who did win as the odds suggested they would.

This may be because fancied teams become frustrated when their on-field performance falls below their expected levels.

Therefore, there does appear to be a correlation between the pre-game match odds and the likelihood of one side receiving more bookings than their opponent, although these expectations can also be swayed by events once the match has begun.

La Liga - The European league with the highest number of bookings

Bookings markets also vary between the major European leagues.

Over the previous three completed seasons, an average La Liga match has nearly 5.5 total cards compared to just 3.5 in England.

The English Premier League, despite its reputation as an overly physical league has nearly 6.5 fouls per card, although as noted, players can be booked for reasons other than committing foul play.

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In Spain over the previous three completed seasons, only 5 fouls are committed per card and an average La Liga match has nearly 5.5 total cards compared to just 3.5 in England.

The Bundesliga has booking totals per game that are more in line with the top flight in England, coming in at a couple of tenths higher, while Italian football is higher still averaging 5 cards per match.

August – The month with the most bookings

Seasonal variations also tend to persist at different times of a league campaign.

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Over the previous three Premier League seasons, August has averaged over 26 fouls per game and 3.8 cards per match. Whereas May, the final month of the season when many sides are involved in neither relegation battles nor title contention, the respective figures fell to 24.5 and 3.2.

Often, particularly in tournaments, referees will be issued with instructions designed to modify player behaviour and the issuing of cards and free kicks is often the method used to ensure the players comply.

The tackle from behind was all but eradicated from the game by swift punitive measures that were introduced in the 1998 World Cup and subsequently worldwide.

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This season, player dissent and shirt pulling by defenders, often at corner kicks appear to be on the current disciplinary agenda. This may temporarily skew the booking figures until players step into line or the initiative is relaxed.

The role of the referee

Stoke City’s recent home match with Manchester City contained two penalty kicks awarded by Mike Dean for shirt pulling, along with a yellow card for the two offenders. Both were incidents that would almost certainly have been disregarded in the recent past. This brings us to another important ingredient in determining match bookings, namely the referee.

Often the officials gain a reputation for being either harsh or lenient, but as figures from international tournaments show, where the referees from different countries fall into line with the wishes of the tournament organisers, they are adaptable and their core statistics may change.

Of the current regular Premier League officials, Robert Madley and Lee Mason appear to be more lenient towards transgressions by the players, as each has averaged just 2.9 cards per game against a league average of 3.5, each tolerating over eight fouls per issue.

Whereas Mike Dean’s patience wears thin after just 6.5 fouls and his average card count is nearly 4 per game, a figure only eclipsed in recent time by the now retired Phil Dowd who had shown 4.5 cards per match from 2013 to 2015.

Higher number of bookings at derbies

One final factor to consider when framing bookings is the nature of the game. Local derbies are often fiercely competitive affairs, regardless of the antecedents of the players involved.

The most notable derby games played in the Premier League are the Merseyside, North London, Manchester and Tyne and Wear derby games and over the last three seasons these 24 games have produced an average of 4.7 cards per match, compared to the league average 3.5.

El Clasico, whilst not a local derby, is another traditionally volatile match and the last six league meetings live up to this reputation and have averaged a combined over 7 cards per game, high even by Spanish standards.

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Below are soccer betting strategies that should help you win some money from the sportsbooks.

Laying the 0-0 Draw

The number of matches that are goalless is remarkably low across all global leagues and this trend presents a good profit making opportunity. In correct score betting the price for 0-0 can be anything from 8/1 to 20/1. The price that is offered is based on statistics for the league and respective scoring records for home and away teams.

Laying the 0-0 draw can be a high risk strategy as a bettor can be risking 100 dollars to win five but with accurate statistics long term profitability is possible. Obviously this strategy must produce enough winning bets to compensate for the costly occasion when the match does not see one goal.

Live television or some updated ticker with ongoing statistics can help. It is wise to take a view at half time to minimise losses. It is far better to give up say 15 dollars in a game with few chances rather than leave the bet to expiry and risk much more.

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If the score is 0-0 at half time the flow of the game and number of shots on goal or corners can be assessed to determine whether the bet should be closed or left until the conclusion of the game. However, only about one in five matches do not have a goal before half time so in most cases the bet will be settled as winner before the second half.

Spread Betting on Corners

Betting on how many corners there will be in a footbal match might seem a strange form of gambling. However, with the right statistics big profits can be made from this market. Simply be keeping a note of how many corners a team wins or concedes easy winnings can be generated in the second half of the season of any league.

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There are five factors which can be used to determine the total corners in any match:

Attacking tactics

High corner counts often go hand in hand with teams that attack with width.

Defensive tactics

Some teams will play the ball out of the penalty area or head away from goal rather than risk conceding a corner.

Clearing lines

Some sides clear away an attack regardless of whether they concede a corner or not.

Size of pitch

The larger the pitch the greater the width of the touchline and that means more corners.

Weather

Windy weather tends to increase the count but very heavy rain can waterlog the pitch and reduce the count.

These factors and statistics for corner winning abilities create a bank of data that can be applied to spread betting and traditional betting. Spread betting firms will quote a range of corners which can be bought or sold. Traditional bookmakers will quote odds on three bands such as under 11 corners, exactly 11 corners or more than 11 corners.

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This approach can be used for domestic matches and international games. Tournaments such as the World Cup, Copa America and European Championship involve many games over a sort period of time. Noting results from the first few matches and carefully applying the extra data concerning playing style, weather and pitch conditions can result in decent profits.

Going Low on Bookings

Towards the end of any football season around the world the fixture list contains many “dead matches”, games that don’t mean much to either team. Sides that cannot qualify for Europe in that continent but are well clear of relegation often have little commitment when they meet.

History proves for example in the English Premiership that the last weeks of the season produce far fewer red and yellow cards than any other period. Bookmakers price up bookings for all matches shown live on television. They use a scoring system that awards 10 points for a yellow card and 25 points for a red card.

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In England from February until the end of the season in May many games are sure to end with much lower total bookings points than the average for the whole of the season. Spread betting and normal betting firms are obviously aware of this but often matches are still overestimated in terms of the number of cards shown by the referee.

Before betting in this market it is also advisable to consider another vital factor and that is the referee. Some refs produce cards far more than others but it is best to look for low-carding referees. That means the ideal game to make consistent profits involves both teams safe from relegation or not challenging for the title refereed by a low carding official.

Laying the Underdog When They Score First

Soccer markets managed by the exchange betting firms are suspended when a significant event occurs. This generally means a goal, penalty or sending off as these events will have a substantial bearing on the outcome of any match.

This strategy can be applied to any soccer league or international match as the markets tend to react in the same way across all countries, leagues and tournaments. The favourites are most likely to score the first goal in any match but sometimes the underdog will be the first to register.

As a general rule it is good strategy to lay an underdog when their price goes to even money (2.0) or less. The first goal is often key to determining the outcome of any match. However, the average number of goals across all leagues is about 2.5 goals. The first successful strike will be the only goal in about 30% of all matches.

The prices will generally over adjust after a goal but any discrepancies or errors will soon be eliminated as the market recreates the correct balance. Therefore the first minute after a goal is scored by the underdog is the limited window of opportunity to follow this strategy.

Arbitrage Opportunities

In economic theory arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of a state of imbalance between two or more markets by making deals in those markets at the same time to exploit the imbalance. In betting terms arbing is when a bettor guarantees a risk-free position by backing a selection at high odds while laying it at lower odds elsewhere.

Soccer exchange betting provides a great deal of scope to take advantage of arb opportunities. This is due to the fact that the sport is the most extensively covered by traditional online bookmakers and exchange operators. Betfair offers soccer betting on almost fifty countries and more than 200 leagues.

In its simplest form soccer arbing involves backing a team to win at 6/4 with a traditional bookmaker and laying them to win at 5/4 with an exchange. Stakes are determined to ensure a winning bet regardless of the outcome. The overall profit margin may be as little as 3% but this is guaranteed and the process can be repeated many times.

With such an array of matches covered the sport will provide most opportunities to take advantage of price differentials. The discrepancy might be minimal and profit margin small but many people around the world try to make a living from arbitraging.

It is now possible to buy software packages that constantly monitor the global soccer markets and highlight these risk-free opportunities. Gambling bots can now be used to place bets automatically and cancel any potential bets when the price differences quickly disappear as the market adjusts. One potential drawback with manual arbing is that prices mat change during the process of placing each bet and that is why a fast internet section is necessary to make profits through arbitrage.