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Having qualified for their first top-tier international soccer tournament in nearly a decade, Serbia was dealt a critical blow this week as starting center back Matija Nastasic is likely to miss the World Cup after an apparent knee injury suffered sometime over the weekend. As the 25-year-old Nastasic is among his team’s best defenders, this puts Serbia in an even deeper hole for the 2018 FIFA World Cup, having already been unluckily placed in Group E alongside tournament co-favorite Brazil (-400) and Switzerland (+600). That’s a tough draw for any club, much less for an underdog trying to bounce back to international relevance.

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Despite their Group E placement, however, Serbia was trending just on Switzerland’s heels at most sportsbooks, posting a respectable +800 at Bovada. In light of Nastasic’s injury, however, those odds are likely to change. And while it remains to be seen how the presumed (though not officially confirmed) loss of a top defensive presence affects Serbia’s chances to advance to the Knockout Stage of 16 teams, Nastasic’s absence will be measurable on the pitch. While it shouldn’t disrupt their ability to defeat Group E’s last-place Costa Rica team (+1800), the real test for Serbia will come on June 22 when they take on Switzerland in Kaliningrad.

If you think Serbia has a real shot to upset Brazil despite Nastasic missing the tourney, you may want to wait a bit before placing your wagers at sportsbooks like Bovada or BetOnline. Once Nastasic’s injury is confirmed by the national Serbian team, expect the country’s odds to get a bit longer at all your favorite betting shops. In other words, if Serbia’s in for the upset, you can wait a while and earn a bigger payout if the club takes Group E.

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However, there is another strategy to consider. Currently, most sportsbooks don’t have odds on which teams will advance to the Knockout Stage, only which teams will win their requisite groups. As the World Cup nears, odds on advancement will be posted, and it’s there that Serbia is much of less of a longshot, Nastasic injury or not.

Even if you’re not a Serbia fan, let this Nastasic situation be a lesson: Betting on FIFA World Cup futures (or any sports futures, for that matter), is a risky proposition – that’s why the odds are so favorable, with big payouts even for big favorites. Any player can do down with an injury at any time, and a superstar getting hurt before a big game or series can tank a team’s tournament prospects faster than virtually any other contingency. So keep an eye on the news, World Cup betting odds, and wager accordingly.

• Bovada

• BetOnline

• SportsBetting.ag

• BetDSI.eu

• 5Dimes.eu

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