Preakness 2019 Predictions
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- Preakness Predictions 2019
Preakness 2019 picks Vinnie Iyer: With the field and track shortened and Improbable in position to regain momentum, Baffert's horse is both the strong and safe bet. With the weather looking much. Preakness Stakes 2019 Odds: Longshot Hopefuls. Amidst a wide-open field, these horses are capable of tilting the Preakness Stakes Betting Odds form charts. Anothertwistafate (+1000) - He’s won three of six starts, including a victory in the El Camino Real Derby.Anothertwistafate was second after a tough trip in the Lexington and came up a neck short in the Sunland Derby.
Event: Preakness Stakes-G1, Pimlico
When: Race 13, Saturday, May 18, 2019
Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Sheldon Russell Odds: 30-1. Drape: This late runner’s. The 2019 Preakness Stakes seems like a wide-open race, with some elite ponies being pulled out of the list of entries. But that’s also what makes the upcoming race at the Pimlico Race Course a whole more interesting – and hopefully less controversial than the 2019 Kentucky Derby, which saw the technology of video replay spoiling the vibe at Churchill Downs.
Age: 3-Year-Olds
Distance: 1 3/16-miles.
Surface: Dirt. Purse: $1.5 Million
2019 Preakness Stakes Picks
- War of Will
- Alwaysmining
- Owendale
- Improbable
Preakness Stakes Longshots:Bourbon War, Bodexpress
2019 Preakness Stakes Entries
No. Horse (ML Odds) Jockey Trainer
1. War of Will (4-1) T. Gafflione, M. Casse
2. Bourbon War (12-1) I. Ortiz, M. Hennig
3. Warrior’s Charge (12-1) J. Castellano, B. Cox
4. Improbable (5/2) M. Smith, B. Baffert
5. Owendale (10-1) F. Geroux, B. Cox
6. Market King (30-1) J. Court, W. Lukas
7. Alwaysmining (8-1) D. Centeno, K. Rubley
8. Signalman (30-1) B. Hernandez, K. McPeek
9. Bodexpress (20-1) J. Velazquez, G. Delgado
10. Everfast (50-1) J. Rosario, D. Romans
11. Laughing Fox (20-1) R. Santana Jr, S. Asmussen
12. Anothertwistafate (6-1) J. Ortiz, B. Wright
13. Win Win Win (15-1) J. Pimental, M. Trombetta
2019 Preakness Stakes Analysis
War of Will looks like the horse to beat in the 144th running of the Preakness Stakes-G1 at Pimlico this Saturday, but he wasn’t rated highly enough to be the morning-line favorite. That honor went to Improbable, which is fine with us. We think War of Will is the better horse.
Unless you’ve been living on another planet, you already know War of Will took the worst of it in the Kentucky Derby-G1 a few weeks ago, but we expected him to come up short in that race regardless, and he did.
War of Will broke like a bullet in the Kentucky Derby and was strangled inside behind the front runners for most of the race before coming off the rail midway through the final turn and trying to make himself some room. And just when he thought he’d found some room in late turn, front running winner Maximum Security (who was later disqualified), drifted out into his path. That caused War of Will to steady and lose a little momentum, but he quickly regained his composure and drew up alongside Maximum Security. War of Will took his best shot at Maximum Security and ran out of gas late, fading to finish eighth (placed seventh).
War of Will was a short horse for the Derby, and both trainer Mark Casse and jockey Tyler Gaffalione knew it, which was probably part of the reason why they didn’t lodge a claim of foul in the Derby. War of Will figured to run out of air after taking a bad step out of the gate and getting nothing out of his previous race in the Louisiana Derby-G1, but he should be fit and ready to roll now.
We’re expecting War of Will to regain the form he showed before the Louisiana Derby when he won both the LeComte-G2 and Risen Star Stakes-G2 from just off the pace. A big, strong, athletic horse, War of Will was impressive in both those races, and a similar effort is expected in Saturday’s Preakness. He drew the rail for the Preakness, just as he did in the Kentucky Derby, but the field is much smaller for the Preakness, and he should be able to find room this time. And that’s only if he doesn’t make the lead by himself, which he could very well do. He’s also both fast, and game.
Improbable is the morning-line favorite based on the strength of his fifth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, where he was only beaten 3 ¼-lengths as the favorite, but he also had every shot at winning that race and seemed to hang late for the second time in a row. In his race previous to the Kentucky Derby, the Arkansas Derby-G1, he had every shot at beating Omaha Beach and couldn’t get by that one.
Improbable’s trainer Bob Baffert has won the Preakness seven times. He’s tied with R. W. Walden for most victories in this race, so he knows how to win it. But he also said that the secret to winning the Preakness was bringing the best horse. In this case, we don’t think he has the best horse.
This year’s Kentucky Derby was probably tougher than it looked, but Improbable still seemed to lack a late punch, and he might not even want to run the mile and three-sixteenths of the Preakness. He does, however, get a rider switch from Irad Ortiz Jr. to Mike Smith, who won the Preakness and the Triple Crown last year aboard Justify.
Ortiz moves back to Bourbon War for the Preakness, and he’ll need to find the race he ran in the Fountain of Youth Stakes-G2, finishing a strong second beaten three-quarters of a length by Kentucky Derby third-place (placed second) finisher Code of Honor. Bourbon War came back to run a lackluster fourth behind Maximum Security after letting Maximum Security set a snail’s pace under no pressure, but Code of Honor didn’t fare much better in the same race. Bourbon War fits with this bunch if he wants to run this far. He also gets blinkers on, which should have him closer to the leaders than usual.
The most notable rider switch in this year’s Preakness belongs to maiden Bodexpress, who gets a switch from Chris Landeros to Hall of Famer John Velazquez after finishing a troubled 14th in the Kentucky Derby. He was about done by the time he felt the aftereffects of the drifting out Maximum Security in the Derby, but he did finish second to that one in the Florida Derby-G1 after tracking a slow pace. He also defeated both Bourbon War and Code of Honor in the Florida Derby. Bodexpress might be this year’s Preakness sleeper on the rider switch.
The most interesting horse in this year’s Preakness is Alwaysmining, who comes into the race on a six-race winning streak, the last five of which have been minor stakes at Laurel. He had a trainer switch to Kelly Rubley as a 2-year-old and went on his streak one race later after a seventh-place finish over yielding turf in the $100,000 Laurel Futurity.
In the third race of his win streak, Alwaysmining defeated fellow Preakness entrant Win Win Win, who was tenth (placed ninth) in the Kentucky Derby. His best numbers put him close with these, and he doesn’t need the lead to win. He also likes to be ridden. When you watch his replays, the more enthusiasm regular jockey Daniel Centeno puts into his ride, the faster this horse goes, and he recently worked a bullet. He’ll now get his class test.
Rounding out the 2019 Preakness field are Warrior’s Charge, Owendale, Signalman, Everfast, Market King, Laughing Fox, Anothertwistafate and Win Win Win.
Warrior’s Charge has won two in a row at Oaklawn Park including a Maiden Special Weight and an N1X allowance going 1 1/16-miles, recording a 97 Beyer Speed Figure in the latter. He’s another who is close on numbers and now gets a class test. Top jockey Javier Castellano takes over in the saddle from Florent Geroux, who sticks with Owendale after riding that one to victory in the Lexington Stakes-G3. Owendale runs best rallying from back in the pack, and he would not be a surprise in here if a fast and contested pace develops, which it very well could.
Anothertwistafate finished second in the Lexington Stakes, but his trouble in that race didn’t appear to be as bad as some are making it out to be. We thought he ran exceptionally well when beaten a neck in the Sunland Derby-G3 two starts ago after being forced to wait, but he actually had less trouble in the Lexington and just didn’t look like the same horse we saw at Sunland.
Laughing Fox was beaten 7 3/4-lengths in the Arkansas Derby-G1 by Omaha Beach and was 6 3/4-lengths behind Improbable in that race. He came back to win a minor stakes at Oaklawn in his last going 1 1/8-miles, but he looks like a lower Preakness superfecta rung horse here at best. The same could be said for Win Win Win, who really had no excuse when finishing tenth in the Kentucky Derby. Signalman was third behind Win Win Win in the Bluegrass Stakes-G2 in his last start and also looks a notch below the best in this year’s Preakness. A fast pace would help his chances.
Market King finished eleventh beaten 37 ¼-lengths in the Bluegrass Stakes after being close early. He looks overmatched in here, as does Everfast, who was beaten 10 ¼-lengths in the Pat Day Mile at Churchill Downs in his last start and ninth beaten 15 lengths in the Florida Derby two starts ago.
This year’s Preakness Stakes sets up with War of Will, Warrior’s Charge and Alwaysmining on or near the lead followed closely by Improbable, Anothertwisafate, Bodexpress, and Market King, with Signalman, Bourbon War, Owendale, Laughing Fox, Win Win Win and Everfast back early. Bourbon War could be closer than usual with blinkers on
War of Will looks like the class speed of the race and should take care of the other pace players. He’ll then have to turn back Improbable, Alwaysmining and Bodexpress and save enough to hold off Bourbon War and Owendale. We think he’ll do just that.
War of Will, to win.
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Preakness Predictions 2019
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In the absence of the first four across the wire in the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness Stakes, the second leg of the Triple Crown, attracted only a single previous Grade 1 winner. That makes for a wide-open race led by the former Derby favorite Improbable, troubled last out runner War of Will and a number of so-called new shooters jumping into the fray at Pimlico Race Course.
Ahead of post time at 6:48 p.m. ET Saturday, get a look at free Preakness Stakes past performances, and consider these picks from Horse Racing Nation contributors:
Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner
Winner: #7 Alwaysmining
On the board: #4 Improbable, #1 War of Will
Longshot I like: #13 Win Win Win
Analysis: Alwaysmining comes in off six straight wins, with his last three by a combined 22 lengths. He has won on the lead or just off the pace in each. The gelding shows fast workouts coming in and drew a great post position for his running style. This horse has big potential. Improbable ran a good race in the Derby and comes in with top connections with trainer Bob Baffert giving the mount here to Mike Smith. He is the only Grade 1 winner in the field. That class should be respected. War of Will clipped heels turning for home in the Derby but comes back here looking fresh. He has among the highest Beyer numbers of any horse in the field, and an ability to lead or stalk makes him versatile from the inside post. Win Win Win will get speed to chase, and a wide post doesn't worry me, as he's a deep closer. Never out of the trifecta aside from in the sloppy Derby, he shows consistency, and this could set up for him. I will play a 7-4-1-13 superfecta box.
Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider
Winner: #1 War of Will
On the board: #4 Improbable, #8 Signalman
Longshot I like: #7 Alwaysmining
Analysis: I prefer the horses going from the Derby to the Preakness. Alwayswining is a nice runner, but he has not proven himself yet against that caliber of horse. War of Will is a physical beast and should be able to show better than two weeks ago if he manages a cleaner trip.
Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace
Winner: #7 Alwaysmining
On the board: #2 Bourbon War, #1 War of Will
Longshot I like: #11 Laughing Fox
Analysis: This Preakness took a hit in talent when the top three Derby finishers and the 17th-place Maximum Security passed, giving a wider opening to outsiders. The standout new shooter is Alwaysmining, who loves to win and shows fast Brisnet Speed Ratings along with competitive TimeformUS Speed Figures. The Maryland-bred can sit a few lengths off the fast pace and get first run on the collapsing speed.
Olivia Newman, The Final Stride
Winner: #4 Improbable
On the board: #12 Anothertwistafate, #7 Alwaysmining
Longshot I like: #8 Signalman
Analysis: Improbable seems to have bounced out of the Derby in good shape and is the only horse of Baffert's trio to be sent on to the Preakness. Anothertwistafate could've been the winner in the Lexington Stakes (G3) had he not been covered up. He showed plenty in a recent sharp, tightening six-furlong work, and I think he's sitting on a big effort. Alwaysmining's running style should set him up well for the race, though he does need to prove he can step up in class. As a longshot, I like
Signalman. Trainer Kenny McPeek has been nothing but confident in his horse, and he's coming into the race fresh yet third off the layoff.
Laura Pugh,Dueling Down the Stretch
Winner: #4 Improbable
On the board: #1 War of Will, #7 Alwaysmining
Longshot I like: #11 Laughing Fox
Analysis: I think we will see a good pace in the Preakness with War of Will either setting it or laying just off it. If he takes back again, he gets a similar trip the the Derby, likely minus getting checked and turned sideways. However, he will have to deal with traffic. Improbable, however, won't have such issues, and that's why I'll have him atop my tickets.
Improbable ran a sneaky-good race in the Derby. He was just about to make a run a path wider than eventual runner-up Code of Honor before getting cut off and forced to alter course a few paths wider. Once he found clear running, he actually made up some ground in the final 1/16th.
Alwaysmining should be forwardly placed and get a clear trip from his post. I think he's the best choice for the third spot. My longshot, Laughing Fox, shows the best late pace figures and should have a good pace in which to close. I don't see him winning, but he could come late for a piece.