Poker Swings
Live poker has variance just like any other form of poker.
The thing about live poker variance is that it’s much slower
and prolonged than what you’ll normally encounter in online
play. With online poker, a player can swing up or down 5-10 buy
ins in a single day. These types of swings are very uncommon in
live poker due to the much slower pace of the game. Depending on
the type of game that you play, your skill level, your style of
play, and what limit you play, your live poker variance can mean
small swings on a monthly basis or huge swings on a weekly
basis.
Live poker players tend to worry much more about their swings
than they really should, and this is a product of the environment.
When you are playing poker online, you don’t really have
the money in your hands. You don’t feel the losses as much
because everything is virtual. In live poker, however, a buy in
lost means you need to reach into your pocket for another $200,
$500 or $1,000+. These types of losses are very real and
will affect almost any player.
Variance at $1/$2 NLHE Games
In NLHE games you are always going to run into more variance
than what you’ll find in limit games, and for very obvious
reasons.
Swings are a function of your ability, the higher your ROI the shorter your swings will be. Everyone will have variance its just a matter of how long the swings last. Relive the greatest moments in PokerStars history, including Phil Ivey battling Daniel Negreanu heads-up, Victoria Coren-Mitchell becoming the only player to.
The lowest stakes No Limit games will have the lowest
long term swings due to:
- The overall skill levels of players
- Weak or new to the live poker scene
- Non serious players just playing for fun
Don’t expect to run into a whole lot of deep thinking players in these
games. As a result of all of this, you should not have many big
down swings.
Normal Swing Range for $1/$2 NLHE
Most $1/$2 NLHE players will have normal swings in the range
of 1-3 buy ins. Though 5 buy in swings are definitely going to
happen from time to time, they aren’t all that common. It’s
unlikely that you’ll frequently lose more than this if you are
a sound winning player. If you are going on bigger swings than
this at $1/$2, you may want to re-think your live poker strategy
altogether. In the end, it gets no easier than this limit when
it comes to live poker.
Variance at $2/$5 and $5/$10 NLHE Games
These two limits were lumped together, though they most
definitely could be separated. The reality is that a very small
percentage of the live poker population makes $5/$10 their
regular game for a number of reasons.
- There aren’t many casinos with a $5/$10 or higher No Limit Texas Hold’em
- Casinos are loaded with $1/$2 tables and the sparse $2/$5 table
- Only a couple casinos in these locations will have $5/$10 running at most times of the day
If you play in Atlantic City, Las Vegas, California, or Florida,
you’ll find some exceptions to this rule.
Normal Swing Range for $2/$5 & $5/$10 NLHE
In these games, swings of 1-5 buy ins are the norm. The live
poker variance will always increase as you play higher limit games
and games with tougher levels of opponents. Variance is going to
be diminished from the perspective of buy ins when you are
playing in deeper games. For example, a $1000 max game at $2/$5
will have less buy in variance than a $500 max $2/$5 game. This
is because many players will buy in short and for under the max
which will make it more unlikely that you will be in 2k+ pots.
Dealing with Live Poker Variance
One of the biggest adjustments and learning curves for new
live poker players is being able to adapt to the constant swings
of real money. You’ll likely be thinking about just how long
it is going to take for you to recoup those losses. Because live
poker is slow, you’ll be left with even more time to bemoan
your losses and to contemplate how just one faded flush card
would have turned your night around. In live poker it’s even
more important that you are able to let the losses roll off your
back.
A lot of players will stress out over their losses when
playing live because everything feels so real. Some of the common
reactions to negative variance include frustrated play,
angry/aggressive play, or simply running to casino games to try
and get even. Looking at things in a one session vacuum at a
time is very easy to do in live poker, but it needs to be
avoided.
The more that you realize that swings are going to
happen and that they are very normal, the more likely that you
are to be unaffected by them. If you play online, make sure to check out
our article covering online poker variance.
Variance Describes The Natural Swings Of Fortune In Results Profits.
Here I Look At How This Works In Poker Tournaments And How To Hedge Against This!
When it comes to profiting from poker tournaments, one thing is for certain – your overall profits will come from a relatively small number of big wins. This is both a blessing and a curse. Your ability to turn a small buy-in into a huge payday, and to use that money to move to the next level is fantastic. At the same time, long dry spells – with a few small cashes between – can make it feel like your bankroll is bleeding away.
There are several ways in which poker players cope with the inherent variance of MTT play. This article covers several aspects, including psychological factors as well as more practical things such as bankroll management and game selection. Poker tournaments can be hugely profitable for skilled poker players – if you are disciplined enough to ride out the swings.
Variance In MTTs – A Bankroll That Can Withstand The Swings!
Bankroll management guidelines often seem crazy to new players, especially those who start with a good run of cards. Pro online tournament players have bankrolls of at least 200 times their 'average buy-in' – and sometimes arrangements with backers to top up if this is not enough.
Hopefully this is an eye opener for many readers. It illustrates that even the best players can go for long spells without a win. If you are going to make poker tournaments your main gain then I will recommend that you have between 50 and 100 buy-ins – even as a recreational player. This protects you somewhat from swings, if you lose half you can always drop down a level or two while you rebuild.
Variance In MTTs – Bigger Games = Higher Variance
If your bread and butter games are those huge field lower level MTTs at Pokerstars, with field sizes in the 1000's, then I recommend you balance this out and fast. With so much of the long-term profit coming from the final table, and such a long and dangerous path to get there you will need a lot of buy-ins to ensure that even a 200x bankroll survives.
Add some smaller games to your schedule, the 180 player SNGs at Pokerstars are a great option – or even enjoy the (far softer) tournaments on other sites. I recommend OnGame's cool Red Kings for this, they have a ton of guaranteed games and field sizes in the 100's instead of the 1000's!
Variance In MTTs – Can You Cope With A Downswing?
Here is a little test, if you have 3 losing nights in a row, do you start to feel pissed off with poker tournaments? Fed up with the suckouts and the donk play? If the answer is yes then poker tournaments might not be the right specialty for you to follow – the variance can go on for weeks or even months. Some players can ride these long dry spells out, knowing that they are making the right plays and that everything will even out in the end… most of us can not.
There are various ways of getting back on track, some SNGs or cash games… a change of site to start fresh for a while or even a break from poker. The key point I wanted to make here is that you need a plan, there is no shame in not being the kind of person who can happily grind though month-long downswing… it takes a unique kind of personality not to get despondant!
Variance In MTTs – Big Rewards For Those Who Crack It!?
If you can focus on play, ride out the swings and keep working on your game to stay ahead of the masses then poker tournaments can be massively profitable.
If you can combine this with some smart tournament selection, looking beyond the big 'obvious' sites at places like OnGame where the sports-betting players crossing into poker keep things super-soft – then there is no reason why you could not break through and make it as a pro.
I'm recommending the smaller field big-guarantees at Red Kings Poker – make sure you check them out for yourself!
Zoom Poker Swings
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